Exit Strategies

By KAREN DEYOUNG and THOMAS E. RICKS
July 17, 2007
Washington Post

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Karen Deyoung and Tom Ricks offer a rare, sober assessment of the difficulties associated with US withdrawal from Iraq.

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If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

That was the conclusion reached in recent "war games" exercises conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson. "I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," said Anderson, who has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But "it will be ugly."

The rest of the article is available from the Washington Post.