Conflict is a complex chaotic system in which the effect of any action cannot be predicted with a high degree of certainty. The nature of chaos is commonly demonstrated using simple machines based on that most predictable of mechanical devices -- the pendulum. All one has to do is to link two pendulums together and the result is bewildering complexity. These two YouTube videos demonstrate this effect quite clearly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VmTiyTut6A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrMQ7G1DtPw&feature=related
Friday, March 07, 2008
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Evangelicals a Liberal Can Love
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
February 3, 2008
New York Times
Having originated on the political left (with its democratic, liberal, and progressive perspectives), those working in the conflict and, especially, peace fields tend to fall into the stereotypes that they preach against and conclude that people on the right side of the political spectrum could not possibly be interested in promoting peace. This helps explain why the movement has never to enjoyed the kind of broad political support required for success. In this article, Nicholas Kristof, of the New York Times, makes a compelling argument that there is enormous potential for an alliance (or at least mutually supporting efforts) between evangelicals and liberals.
At a New York or Los Angeles cocktail party, few would dare make a pejorative comment about Barack Obama's race or Hillary Clinton's sex. Yet it would be easy to get away with deriding Mike Huckabee's religious faith.
Liberals believe deeply in tolerance and over the last century have led the battles against prejudices of all kinds, but we have a blind spot about Christian evangelicals. They constitute one of the few minorities that, on the American coasts or university campuses, it remains fashionable to mock.
Scorning people for their faith is intrinsically repugnant, and in this case it also betrays a profound misunderstanding of how far evangelicals have moved over the last decade. Today, conservative Christian churches do superb work on poverty, AIDS, sex trafficking, climate change, prison abuses, malaria and genocide in Darfur.
Bleeding-heart liberals could accomplish far more if they reached out to build common cause with bleeding-heart conservatives. And the Democratic presidential candidate (particularly if it's Mr. Obama, to whom evangelicals have been startlingly receptive) has a real chance this year of winning large numbers of evangelical voters.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
February 3, 2008
New York Times
Having originated on the political left (with its democratic, liberal, and progressive perspectives), those working in the conflict and, especially, peace fields tend to fall into the stereotypes that they preach against and conclude that people on the right side of the political spectrum could not possibly be interested in promoting peace. This helps explain why the movement has never to enjoyed the kind of broad political support required for success. In this article, Nicholas Kristof, of the New York Times, makes a compelling argument that there is enormous potential for an alliance (or at least mutually supporting efforts) between evangelicals and liberals.
At a New York or Los Angeles cocktail party, few would dare make a pejorative comment about Barack Obama's race or Hillary Clinton's sex. Yet it would be easy to get away with deriding Mike Huckabee's religious faith.
Liberals believe deeply in tolerance and over the last century have led the battles against prejudices of all kinds, but we have a blind spot about Christian evangelicals. They constitute one of the few minorities that, on the American coasts or university campuses, it remains fashionable to mock.
Scorning people for their faith is intrinsically repugnant, and in this case it also betrays a profound misunderstanding of how far evangelicals have moved over the last decade. Today, conservative Christian churches do superb work on poverty, AIDS, sex trafficking, climate change, prison abuses, malaria and genocide in Darfur.
Bleeding-heart liberals could accomplish far more if they reached out to build common cause with bleeding-heart conservatives. And the Democratic presidential candidate (particularly if it's Mr. Obama, to whom evangelicals have been startlingly receptive) has a real chance this year of winning large numbers of evangelical voters.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Making Peace One Person at a Time
by LINDA GRADSTEIN
"Morning Edition"
February 22, 2008
National Public Radio
This National Public Radio story on the Seeds for Peace project provides an account of Seeds of Peace' continuing efforts to cultivate the basis for a long-term reconciliation effort. Given the current difficulties, this may be the most that can be realistically pursued. Still, it's good to see people trying.
In Israel and the West Bank, there are dozens of organizations promoting Israeli and Palestinian cooperation on a wide range of issues. Members say they're laying the groundwork for a future Israeli and Palestinian peace deal.
The rest of the article is available from National Public Radio.
"Morning Edition"
February 22, 2008
National Public Radio
This National Public Radio story on the Seeds for Peace project provides an account of Seeds of Peace' continuing efforts to cultivate the basis for a long-term reconciliation effort. Given the current difficulties, this may be the most that can be realistically pursued. Still, it's good to see people trying.
In Israel and the West Bank, there are dozens of organizations promoting Israeli and Palestinian cooperation on a wide range of issues. Members say they're laying the groundwork for a future Israeli and Palestinian peace deal.
The rest of the article is available from National Public Radio.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Preview of Post-Election Conflicts
"When Reality Bites"
By DAVID BROOKS
February 12, 2008
New York Times
In an earlier post, we expressed both an admiration of Obama's efforts to build a coalition that crosses partisan divides and an appreciation of the difficulties involved. In this article, David Brooks, of the New York Times, offers a clear and succinct statement of these difficulties. What does our field have to say about strategies for meeting this challenge?
There's a big difference between the Republican and Democratic campaigns: The Republicans have split on policy grounds; the Democrats haven't. There's been a Republican divide between center and right, yet no Democratic divide between center and left.
But when you think about it, the Democratic policy unity is a mirage. If the Democrats actually win the White House, the tensions would resurface with a vengeance.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
By DAVID BROOKS
February 12, 2008
New York Times
In an earlier post, we expressed both an admiration of Obama's efforts to build a coalition that crosses partisan divides and an appreciation of the difficulties involved. In this article, David Brooks, of the New York Times, offers a clear and succinct statement of these difficulties. What does our field have to say about strategies for meeting this challenge?
There's a big difference between the Republican and Democratic campaigns: The Republicans have split on policy grounds; the Democrats haven't. There's been a Republican divide between center and right, yet no Democratic divide between center and left.
But when you think about it, the Democratic policy unity is a mirage. If the Democrats actually win the White House, the tensions would resurface with a vengeance.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Two for the Road
Nicholas Kristof, of the New York Times, is one of the most eloquent defenders of the poor and powerless around the world. His columns are essential reading, even though his subjects may be disagreeable and hard to think about.
He also sponsored a fascinating essay contest, in which the two winners got to accompany Kristof on a reporting trip to Africa. "Two for the Road" (the blog that the winners maintained) provides a wonderful window into what it's like to cover and try to do something about some of the world's most difficult problems.
He also sponsored a fascinating essay contest, in which the two winners got to accompany Kristof on a reporting trip to Africa. "Two for the Road" (the blog that the winners maintained) provides a wonderful window into what it's like to cover and try to do something about some of the world's most difficult problems.
Non-Violent Protest in the Middle East?
We have long thought that the history of the Palestinians, and the Middle East more generally, would have been vastly less tragic had there been more frequent use of nonviolent strategies for addressing social injustice. Recently, we've begun to notice largely neglected stories of nonviolent protests coming out of the Middle East. With this blog posting we will try to start to keep track of some of these.
There are very interesting research questions here. How often are nonviolent strategies being used? How effective are they? And, most importantly, might the level of violence be reduced if the more powerful side of these conflicts acted in ways which would increase the success rate of nonviolent protest.
Gaza protesters form human chain
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7262089.stm
A Palestinian Intifada Icon Chooses Art over War
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=19239928
America's Sunni Allies Go On Strike in Iraq's Diyala Province
By STEVE LANNEN
February 8, 2008
McClatchy Newspapers
Members of U.S.-allied citizen brigades, which are credited with helping to tamp down violence in many parts of Iraq, went on strike Friday in Diyala province, alleging that the provincial police chief there is running a death squad.
A leader of the group said that brigade members, most of them Sunni Muslims, wouldn't resume working with U.S. and Iraqi government forces until the Shiite police chief resigns or is indicted.
A curfew was imposed, and police throughout the province ended their patrols early to avoid clashes with the U.S.-funded concerned local citizens, or "popular committees" as they're known in Diyala, who staged demonstrations against the police chief. No casualties were reported.
The rest of the article is available from the McClatchy Washington Bureau.
There are very interesting research questions here. How often are nonviolent strategies being used? How effective are they? And, most importantly, might the level of violence be reduced if the more powerful side of these conflicts acted in ways which would increase the success rate of nonviolent protest.
Gaza protesters form human chain
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7262089.stm
A Palestinian Intifada Icon Chooses Art over War
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=19239928
America's Sunni Allies Go On Strike in Iraq's Diyala Province
By STEVE LANNEN
February 8, 2008
McClatchy Newspapers
Members of U.S.-allied citizen brigades, which are credited with helping to tamp down violence in many parts of Iraq, went on strike Friday in Diyala province, alleging that the provincial police chief there is running a death squad.
A leader of the group said that brigade members, most of them Sunni Muslims, wouldn't resume working with U.S. and Iraqi government forces until the Shiite police chief resigns or is indicted.
A curfew was imposed, and police throughout the province ended their patrols early to avoid clashes with the U.S.-funded concerned local citizens, or "popular committees" as they're known in Diyala, who staged demonstrations against the police chief. No casualties were reported.
The rest of the article is available from the McClatchy Washington Bureau.
Friday, February 08, 2008
After Hard-Won Lessons, Army Doctrine Revised
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
February 8, 2008
New York Times
A couple of years ago we started to attend meetings in which the military appeared to be talking seriously about efforts to enhance its ability to move beyond "kinetic" operations and start to work with civilian and nongovernment agencies to pursue something much closer to what we would call peacebuilding. This is, perhaps most famously referred to in Directive 3000.05 and NSPD-44. A lot of people were skeptical. This article, however, suggests that this trend is real and is continuing.
The Army has drafted a new operations manual that elevates the mission of stabilizing war-torn nations, making it equal in importance to defeating adversaries on the battlefield.
Military officials described the new document, the first new edition of the Army’s comprehensive doctrine since 2001, as a major development that draws on the hard-learned lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial military successes gave way to long, grueling struggles to establish control.
It is also an illustration of how far the Pentagon has moved beyond the Bush administration’s initial reluctance to use the military to support “nation-building” efforts when it came into office.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
February 8, 2008
New York Times
A couple of years ago we started to attend meetings in which the military appeared to be talking seriously about efforts to enhance its ability to move beyond "kinetic" operations and start to work with civilian and nongovernment agencies to pursue something much closer to what we would call peacebuilding. This is, perhaps most famously referred to in Directive 3000.05 and NSPD-44. A lot of people were skeptical. This article, however, suggests that this trend is real and is continuing.
The Army has drafted a new operations manual that elevates the mission of stabilizing war-torn nations, making it equal in importance to defeating adversaries on the battlefield.
Military officials described the new document, the first new edition of the Army’s comprehensive doctrine since 2001, as a major development that draws on the hard-learned lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial military successes gave way to long, grueling struggles to establish control.
It is also an illustration of how far the Pentagon has moved beyond the Bush administration’s initial reluctance to use the military to support “nation-building” efforts when it came into office.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
Girls For Sale
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
January 17, 2004
New York Times
This article, along with others written by the New York Times' Nicholas Kristof, serves as a powerful reminder of the stakes involved in intractable conflict. It also reminds us that our goal is justice -- not just the cessation of overt hostilities.
One thinks of slavery as an evil confined to musty sepia photographs. But there are 21st-century versions of slaves as well, girls like Srey Neth.
I met Srey Neth, a lovely, giggly wisp of a teenager, here in the wild smuggling town of Poipet in northwestern Cambodia. Girls here are bought and sold, but there is an important difference compared with the 19th century: many of these modern slaves will be dead of AIDS by their 20's.
Some 700,000 people are trafficked around the world each year, many of them just girls. They form part of what I believe will be the paramount moral challenge we will face in this century: to address the brutality that is the lot of so many women in the developing world. Yet it's an issue that gets little attention and that most American women's groups have done shamefully little to address.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
January 17, 2004
New York Times
This article, along with others written by the New York Times' Nicholas Kristof, serves as a powerful reminder of the stakes involved in intractable conflict. It also reminds us that our goal is justice -- not just the cessation of overt hostilities.
One thinks of slavery as an evil confined to musty sepia photographs. But there are 21st-century versions of slaves as well, girls like Srey Neth.
I met Srey Neth, a lovely, giggly wisp of a teenager, here in the wild smuggling town of Poipet in northwestern Cambodia. Girls here are bought and sold, but there is an important difference compared with the 19th century: many of these modern slaves will be dead of AIDS by their 20's.
Some 700,000 people are trafficked around the world each year, many of them just girls. They form part of what I believe will be the paramount moral challenge we will face in this century: to address the brutality that is the lot of so many women in the developing world. Yet it's an issue that gets little attention and that most American women's groups have done shamefully little to address.
The rest of the article is available from the New York Times.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Reflections on Obama and Options for Bridging the Partisan Divide
Discussions of political communication and conflict all too often focus on what's wrong with the process and the many ways in which political advertising and propaganda are leading to political decisions which do not serve the interests of our society or its citizens.
Yesterday, I was reminded that politicians also have the ability to inspire and genuinely call us to a higher purpose. The occasion was Colorado's moment in the spotlight of the national presidential primary campaign and a visit to the University of Denver by Barack Obama.
Having been persuaded to arrive really early by my political science student son, we were actually in the arena and avoided the fate of the many who were forced to listen to the speech at various overflow facilities.
What I heard, surprisingly, reminded me of Nelson Mandela. To a significant -- though thankfully lesser -- degree, the United States (like South Africa) has been torn asunder by a ruling elite that, from my democratic, liberal perspective, has attempted to dominate and ruthlessly exploit a large fraction of the population. While our travails have been nowhere near as horrific as those suffered under apartheid, those on the losing side of Bush administration policies have every reason to be furious and to demand that the crimes of the Bush administration be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
After all, this is an administration that has sought to bring about a permanent Republican majority by instituting a "pay-as-you-go" policy of institutionalized bribery, and by using a "starve the beast" strategy designed to prevent Democrats from providing government services to its constituents by bankrupting the government. This is also an administration that deceptively led the nation into a war from which its cronies are profiting handsomely, while the death count associated with the misadventure starts to rival that for Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Like Mandela, who was uncompromising in his opposition to apartheid, Obama’s call for radical change represents a total repudiation of the policies of the Bush administration. What’s impressive is that, like Mandela, his focus is on the future rather than the past. Instead of simply settling for winning the partisan battle, he's calling for a bipartisan future that would reconcile past divisions and allow us to work together toward meeting a series of very daunting challenges.
The central issue of this political season is whether or not this is a realistic aspiration or whether it represents a naïve softness that will be ruthlessly attacked and ultimately defeated by the same partisan forces that have plagued the past two decades.
It's not enough to have an inspirational vision; one has to have a realistic plan for implementing that vision. This is the concern that Paul Krugman has so eloquently raised about Obamamania. (Click here for more.)
As someone who has spent a career studying intractable conflicts -- those situations that defy even the best efforts at reconciliation -- I recognize and appreciate the enormous challenge that Obama has undertaken. Still, as a result of the efforts of people like Mandela, who have worked to reconcile even more divided societies, we've learned a lot about what needs to be done and how to do it.
The time has come to put these ideas into play (and to develop new ideas for meeting unmet challenges). If this can be done, then it may be possible to transform a partisan political campaign for president into a national unity movement that focuses everyone on living up to our country's ideals.
There are certainly hints, from within the Republican campaigns, that such an initiative might be favorably received. Romney is running as an agent of change, McCain openly acknowledges the terrible mistakes that led to the tragedy of Iraq, and Huckabee articulates a set of Christian principles that are remarkably similar to the secular, humanitarian principles of the left.
Yesterday, I was reminded that politicians also have the ability to inspire and genuinely call us to a higher purpose. The occasion was Colorado's moment in the spotlight of the national presidential primary campaign and a visit to the University of Denver by Barack Obama.
Having been persuaded to arrive really early by my political science student son, we were actually in the arena and avoided the fate of the many who were forced to listen to the speech at various overflow facilities.
What I heard, surprisingly, reminded me of Nelson Mandela. To a significant -- though thankfully lesser -- degree, the United States (like South Africa) has been torn asunder by a ruling elite that, from my democratic, liberal perspective, has attempted to dominate and ruthlessly exploit a large fraction of the population. While our travails have been nowhere near as horrific as those suffered under apartheid, those on the losing side of Bush administration policies have every reason to be furious and to demand that the crimes of the Bush administration be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
After all, this is an administration that has sought to bring about a permanent Republican majority by instituting a "pay-as-you-go" policy of institutionalized bribery, and by using a "starve the beast" strategy designed to prevent Democrats from providing government services to its constituents by bankrupting the government. This is also an administration that deceptively led the nation into a war from which its cronies are profiting handsomely, while the death count associated with the misadventure starts to rival that for Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Like Mandela, who was uncompromising in his opposition to apartheid, Obama’s call for radical change represents a total repudiation of the policies of the Bush administration. What’s impressive is that, like Mandela, his focus is on the future rather than the past. Instead of simply settling for winning the partisan battle, he's calling for a bipartisan future that would reconcile past divisions and allow us to work together toward meeting a series of very daunting challenges.
The central issue of this political season is whether or not this is a realistic aspiration or whether it represents a naïve softness that will be ruthlessly attacked and ultimately defeated by the same partisan forces that have plagued the past two decades.
It's not enough to have an inspirational vision; one has to have a realistic plan for implementing that vision. This is the concern that Paul Krugman has so eloquently raised about Obamamania. (Click here for more.)
As someone who has spent a career studying intractable conflicts -- those situations that defy even the best efforts at reconciliation -- I recognize and appreciate the enormous challenge that Obama has undertaken. Still, as a result of the efforts of people like Mandela, who have worked to reconcile even more divided societies, we've learned a lot about what needs to be done and how to do it.
The time has come to put these ideas into play (and to develop new ideas for meeting unmet challenges). If this can be done, then it may be possible to transform a partisan political campaign for president into a national unity movement that focuses everyone on living up to our country's ideals.
There are certainly hints, from within the Republican campaigns, that such an initiative might be favorably received. Romney is running as an agent of change, McCain openly acknowledges the terrible mistakes that led to the tragedy of Iraq, and Huckabee articulates a set of Christian principles that are remarkably similar to the secular, humanitarian principles of the left.
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